Uncertainty in the Performance and Design of Wind Turbines

In this presentation, I will present work where various uncertainties are evident and need to be addressed for acceptable wind turbine and plant performance.  Starting with the setting or environment (terrestrial, atmospheric, offshore, etc.) and the inherent variability in its characterization; then, on to model uncertainties at both the turbine unit and plant/array levels; and finally to matters related to adequate performance to meet prescribed limit states, I will discuss the importance of acknowledging and accounting for uncertainty.  How uncertainty is accounted for in codified design standards will also be discussed.  Selected examples will highlight issues related to site assessment and site-specific challenges as evident in field data; uncertainty propagation from inflow to loads; efficient reliability methods for design; an extensive high-performance computing exercise undertaken in calibration of design provisions; and a demonstration of uncertainty quantification (UQ) using surrogates for turbine extreme loads.

Friday, September 16, 2016 - 2:00pm
Gunness Student Center conference room in Marcus Hall